Beer calls, so I’m just putting this up here now and will add some commentary in the morning before first kickoff. Here is the simple model’s outputs for tomorrow’s action. My xGoal model isn’t fully wound-up as of yet, but this model has been surprising reliable for the past 4 seasons, and it is the one that I plan on making a how-to guide for, for all of those interested in making your own analysis. Anyway, here are the figures, more tomorrow. Points to note – this model does  not take into account things such as injuries, suspensions, weather, transfers, new managers etc… it is purely based on match stats. Some good value bets in there for the betting inclined.

 

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It may be the beer, but I fancy a flutter on West Brom

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