Here is my simple model’s outputs for tomorrow’s action. My xGoal model isn’t fully wound-up as of yet, but this model has been surprising reliable for the past 4 seasons, and it is the one that I plan on making a how-to guide for, for all of those interested in making your own analysis. Anyway, here are the figures. Points to note – this model does not take into account things such as injuries, suspensions, weather, transfers, new managers etc… it is purely based on match stats. Some good value bets in there for the betting inclined.
Some big away favourites this week including Arsenal and Manchester City. It will be an interesting week for the top 4 teams in the league as they all play very winnable games where anything less than 3 points could come back to haunt them by season’s end.
Looking at the expected goals data indicates that Arsenal and Manchester City should win comfortably. Southampton and Chelsea should be a tight encounter, but the way that Conte’s men brushed Manchester United aside would put a question mark over that game. Should be a good one to watch, but from a betting perspective, I would give it a miss.
*Bookmaker prices are market averages taken from oddsportal.com
In terms of value, Watford and Everton look under-priced by bookmakers, but the odds on offer are rather short. The price of Crystal Palace (4.66) at home looks very attractive. Tottenham, not so much. They will be without the EPL’s number 1 defender Toby Alderweirald and striker Harry Kane. Leicester’s form in the Champion’s League has been phenomenal, and I would not be confident going against them.
Lastly, here’s a gif of each team’s attack and defence ratings, broken up by each matchup.Below you can see each team’s overall rating. The greater the number in the last column is above 0, the stronger the home team are over their opponents, the lower the number below 0 the stronger the away side are. The ratings here are pointing to Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham, Watford, Manchester City, and Everton all winning, with Stoke v Swansea being predicted as a draw.