With some interesting results over the weekend, let’s take a look at some of our key stats for the Premier League.
First up let’s take a look at the Brier Scores. You can find an explanation of what these are here.
The bookmakers got it spot on for the most part this week, with 8 out of 10 results fit with market expectation. However, there were two results that shocked. Manchester United failed to get one past Tom Heaton and Burnley despite taking a whopping 38 shots, 11 of which hit the target. Mourinho’s men were in total control of the match taking 19 corners and passing the ball a huge 402 times more than Burnley. Manchester United made 73% of 890 passes! Sometimes things just don’t go your way, that’s football, but Burnley deserve a hat tip for their defensive display, particularly Tom Heaton and Michael Keane. There was absolutely no value on Manchester United, as the table above shows they were the worst priced team of Gameweek 10. The other game that went against expectation was Tottenaham Hotspur vs Leicester City. Games involving these two teams are quite tricky at the moment. Leicester haven’t really shown up in the EPL but are on fire in Europe. Tottenham’s defensive stats are hard to gauge as they are a huge outlier. With Alderweirald and Harry Kane injured, there are question marks over their attack and defence. Alderweirald is still a major doubt for next week’s game against Arsenal, but Harry Kane is expected to return.
Here are the Brier Scores for each team this season:
TSR (Total Shots Ratio – Shots for/(Shots for + Shots against):
Shots are a much better indicator of performance than goals. Goals are a rare event in football and as such they do not provide enough data points for reliable statistical analysis. Luckily in football, shots are far more common and provide enough data for performance analysis.Here is each team’s TSR for gameweek 10:
And for this season so far:
Expected Points v Points
xPoints are calculated by looking at a team’s shots data (both wide and on target) and goal differences.
Things are really starting to take shape in the league. City are pretty much were they are expected to be, as are Tottenaham and Chelsea. Arsenal and Liverpool are still over performing by 1.9 and 1.4 points respectively. Last season’s league winners Leicester are also over performing. On the flip side, Palace, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Sunderland, and Swansea are all underperforming, with Southampton and Swansea expected to be 3 points better off than where they find themselves.
It really doesn’t look good for Hull, they have only managed to win 7 points but that is over 3 points more than they should have.
Next week is a big one for Arsenal and Tottenham, with Spurs possibly having more to play for after failing to win all 3 points against Leicester last weekend.