I’ll keep it brief as I am dying with the flu. Another action packed week in the EPL with a huge 36 goals scored over 10 games. Let’s take a look at how things are after gameweek 11.

First up are the Brier Scores. These are basically a measure of how well bookmakers predicted the outcomes of each game. You can find a more detailed explanation of what these are here.

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Well well, some big surprises this week with only Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United playing to expectation. Bournemouth failed to hold on to a 1-0 victory against a 10 man Sunderland, losing that game 2-1. Manchester City also failed to secure 3 points. They were tipped to win this one by a wide margin, but the Boro managed to find an equalizer late on in the match.

Here are each team’s Brier Scores for this season:

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TSR (Total Shots Ratio – Shots for/(Shots for + Shots against):

Shots are a much better indicator of performance than goals. Goals are a rare event in football and as such they do not provide enough data points for reliable statistical analysis. Luckily in football, shots are far more common and provide enough data for performance analysis.Here is each team’s TSR for gameweek 11:

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And for this season so far:

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Expected Points v Points

xPoints are calculated by looking at a team’s shots data (both wide and on target) and goal differences.

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Southampton continue to underperform, having thrown away a 1-0 advantage  to lose 2-1 to Hull City. Swansea are also big underperformers. Hull are overperforming by almost 5 points, while Burnley are overperforming by a little over 4 points.

 

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